Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (1.03x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
34%
2.93
24%
4.11
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.97
1.57
Al Riyadh xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.57 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.