Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fateh and Al-Raed meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 13 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Raed (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Fateh's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Al-Raed in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Al-Fateh 4W, Al-Raed 3W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Raed winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Al-Raed 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 66% | Al-Raed 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.61 xG and Al-Raed 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.855 / defence 1.114 | Al-Raed attack 0.978 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.323. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Al-Fateh games / 58 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 90% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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