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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Fateh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.49 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.61 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 41%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights