Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al Fateh club stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fateh (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 6W 1D 3L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Al-Fateh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fateh lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 68% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.49 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.040 / defence 1.068 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.036 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.460. Data: 37 Al-Fateh games / 37 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fateh 1.49 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.040 / def 1.068 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.036 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 35% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.04) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.04x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
35%
2.83
24%
4.20
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.10
1.61
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.61 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 11W 7D 19L from 37 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 8L across 37 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 3D 8L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Qadisiyah FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 11W 7D 19L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 23W 6D 8L in their last 37 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3-0 on 23 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Al-Fateh, 50% for Al-Qadisiyah FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Fateh) and 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Al-Fateh's games and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Fateh's matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.49 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.61 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 41%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.