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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC finished level at 1-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights