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Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al Okhdood 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Okhdood 2-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.96 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 1.21 against Al Okhdood attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 59% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 19%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 57%, Al Okhdood 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.12 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights