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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.01 xG and Al-Hazm 1.52 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.24 / defence 1.22 against Al-Hazm attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 56%, Al-Hazm 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights