🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 2-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.59 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 40%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights