🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Fateh club stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 October 2025 at 15:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Ettifaq's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ettifaq's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Al-Ettifaq have managed just 1 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fateh winning.

The historical record gives Al-Fateh a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Fateh trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al-Ettifaq 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.901 / defence 0.975 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.078 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.513. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 39 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

Al-Fateh dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Ettifaq are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al-Ettifaq 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights