Al-Fateh 2-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Fateh club stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 October 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ettifaq's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while Al-Ettifaq have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fateh and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al-Ettifaq 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.901 / defence 0.975 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.078 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.513. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 39 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Al-Fateh dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Ettifaq are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al-Ettifaq 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fateh 1.51 / Al-Ettifaq 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.901 / def 0.975 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.078 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al-Ettifaq xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh 2 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fateh 6W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
36%
2.75
24%
4.19
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.10
1.59
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.59 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 11W 7D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 16W 9D 14L from 39 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 6D 4L from 19 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 11W 7D 21L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 9D 14L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 7, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 79%, Al-Ettifaq at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Fateh and 58% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Al-Fateh's games and 74% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Fateh's matches and 58% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 2-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.59 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 40%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.