🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.87 / defence 0.69, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 63%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights