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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 26 December 2025 at 13:05 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W, 2D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 70% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 63% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.031 / defence 1.185 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.867 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.491. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.685 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.

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