Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Kholood at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC host Al Kholood at Al Majma’a Sport City in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 October 2026 at 13:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 outings — a 0.43 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Al Majma’a Sport City this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al Kholood — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Kholood — 0.87 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 57% and Al Kholood 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 43% | Al Kholood 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.01 xG and Al Kholood 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.653 / defence 1.162 | Al Kholood attack 0.879 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.375. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Al-Faisaly FC games / 42 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 23% | Draw 35% | Al Kholood 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Al Kholood 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al Kholood 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Majma’a Sport City • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 23% | Draw 35% | Al Kholood 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.01 / Al Kholood 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.653 / def 1.162 | Al Kholood attack 0.879 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al Kholood xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood kicked off at 13:40 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Al Majma’a Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Al-Faisaly FC 3 - 2 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma’a Sport City.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 23% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.65x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
23%
4.32
35%
2.90
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.40
Al Kholood xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
6%
17.55
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.40 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 3D 4L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Kholood carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Kholood's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.57 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
0
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al Kholood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Faisaly FC at 67%, Al Kholood at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Faisaly FC and 33% for Al Kholood.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Kholood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 67% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 33% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Faisaly FC defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Al Kholood 3-2 at Al Majma’a Sport City, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.01 xG and Al Kholood 1.40 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.16 against Al Kholood attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 7/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 23% | Draw 35% | Al Kholood 42%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Al-Faisaly FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 43%, Al Kholood 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Kholood arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.43. Form was overturned, with Al-Faisaly FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.