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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq and NEOM finished level at 0-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.79 xG and NEOM 1.64 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.8 short of their projected output. NEOM landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against NEOM attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 23% | NEOM 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 67%, NEOM 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

NEOM's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.67 PPG, NEOM 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights