🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq host NEOM at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, NEOM stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEOM's away record: 4W 1D 2L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.86 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEOM in 86% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

NEOM in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 67% and NEOM 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ettifaq 67% | NEOM 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.79 xG and NEOM 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.967 / defence 1.085 | NEOM attack 1.015 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.488. Data: 49 Al-Ettifaq games / 15 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 23% | NEOM 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | NEOM 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | NEOM 86% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights