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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Taawon 1-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG and Al Taawon 1.55 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 47%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Taawon's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.52 PPG, Al Taawon 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights