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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Taawon 1-0 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.87 xG and Al Taawon 1.41 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.87 / defence 1.29 against Al Taawon attack 0.79 / defence 0.66, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 23% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 50%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 46%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Taawon's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.38 PPG, Al Taawon 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights