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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab finished level at 1-1 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Al Shabab attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.52 PPG, Al Shabab 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights