Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Orubah to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 20 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Ettifaq at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Orubah — last 6 games: 2W 1D 3L — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al Orubah away from home: 0W 1D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.17 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.53 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.17. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Orubah in-play and half-time data (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 33% of Al Orubah's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 33% | Al Orubah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al Orubah 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.717 / defence 0.918 | Al Orubah attack 0.795 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.273. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Al Orubah's defence rating of 1.366 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Al Orubah's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 40 games and Al Orubah's last 6.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 48% | Draw 27% | Al Orubah 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.07 | Draw 3.71 | Al Orubah 4.06. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Orubah 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 48% | Draw 27% | Al Orubah 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.42 / Al Orubah 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.717 / def 0.918 | Al Orubah attack 0.795 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Orubah xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 3 Al Orubah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.72x the league average against Al Orubah's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Orubah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 40 games and Al Orubah's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.71
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.35
0.93
Al Orubah xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.93 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Al Orubah's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 3 home games (1W 0D 2L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Orubah's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Orubah
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al Orubah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Orubah
Early Season
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Orubah away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Orubah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Orubah in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
1
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al Orubah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Al Orubah 1-2 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ettifaq 0% BTTS, Al Orubah 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Al-Ettifaq and 100% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Orubah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 67% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 100% of Al Orubah's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 100% of Al Orubah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al Orubah 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Orubah outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Al Orubah attack 0.80 / defence 1.37, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 48% | Draw 27% | Al Orubah 25%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 33%, Al Orubah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Orubah's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Al Orubah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.