Al-Ettifaq 0-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 50%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq host Al-Raed at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 3 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 3D 3L at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Raed's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Raed 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 44% versus Al-Raed 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 36% | Al-Raed 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.00 xG and Al-Raed 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.784 / defence 0.960 | Al-Raed attack 1.284 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.261. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Raed have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Ettifaq games / 39 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 2.00. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Al-Raed 70%.

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