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Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.70 xG and Al Okhdood 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Al Okhdood attack 0.65 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 51% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 24%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al Okhdood 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights