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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq host Al Okhdood at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 January 2026 at 14:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 4D 1L at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al Okhdood — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al Okhdood and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 62% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 58% | Al Okhdood 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.70 xG and Al Okhdood 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.095 / defence 1.157 | Al Okhdood attack 0.645 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.461. Data: 45 Al-Ettifaq games / 45 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 51% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 4.17. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Okhdood 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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