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Shock result as Al Khaleej Saihat defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.95 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.80 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al Khaleej Saihat 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.53 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights