Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Monday 12 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Ettifaq's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Al Khaleej Saihat — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ettifaq a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 62% and Al Khaleej Saihat 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al Khaleej Saihat 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.95 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.090 / defence 1.066 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.146 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.472. Data: 47 Al-Ettifaq games / 47 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 4.76 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.95 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.090 / def 1.066 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.146 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 12 January 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 36% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 4W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.09x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.15x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.37
21%
4.67
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.75
1.80
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.80 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 20W 12D 15L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 15W 10D 22L from 47 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.17 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.49 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 games (1.53 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.33 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al-Ettifaq and 75% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Khaleej Saihat defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.95 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.80 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al Khaleej Saihat 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.53 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.