Al-Ettifaq 2-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Al-Hazm travel to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 2D 3L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.83 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 0.57 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.83) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Al-Ettifaq hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ettifaq and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hazm trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 67% versus Al-Hazm 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 83% | Al-Hazm 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.18 xG and Al-Hazm 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.799 / defence 1.140 | Al-Hazm attack 0.760 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.445. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Al-Ettifaq games / 6 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Hazm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Hazm 67%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.18 / Al-Hazm 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.799 / def 1.140 | Al-Hazm attack 0.760 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Hazm xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.47
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.43
1.25
Al-Hazm xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.25 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.17 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Al-Hazm travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 33%, Al-Hazm 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Ettifaq) and 33% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 33% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.18 xG and Al-Hazm 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hazm attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 37%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 83%, Al-Hazm 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.17 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.