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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fayha 3-2 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG and Al-Fayha 1.50 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Al-Fayha attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 40%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Fayha 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.40 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights