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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:25 UTC.

Form

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Al-Fayha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.10 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 62% versus Al-Fayha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al-Fayha 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG and Al-Fayha 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.866 / defence 1.143 | Al-Fayha attack 0.862 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.522. Data: 42 Al-Ettifaq games / 42 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Fayha 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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