Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 11 February 2027 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 0.90 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Al-Ettifaq.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2026, ended 4–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Fateh have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 56% versus Al-Fateh 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 59% | Al-Fateh 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.51 xG and Al-Fateh 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.973 / defence 1.047 | Al-Fateh attack 0.840 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Ettifaq games / 34 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.51 / Al-Fateh 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.973 / def 1.047 | Al-Fateh attack 0.840 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 7W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.74
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.74
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.22 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 14W 8D 12L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Fateh's form line: 9W 10D 15L from 34 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.47 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 6D 9L from 17 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 59%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Ettifaq) and 35% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 35% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.