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Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 2.07 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 1.32 against Al-Fateh attack 0.70 / defence 1.42, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 22%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.38 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights