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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Taawon 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.42 xG and Al Taawon 1.39 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against Al Taawon attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 37%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, Al Taawon 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Taawon's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.02 PPG, Al Taawon 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights