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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawon to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 2.30 PPG versus Al Taawon's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Al Taawon, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al Taawon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% | Al Taawon 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.42 xG and Al Taawon 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.149 / defence 0.874 | Al Taawon attack 1.122 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.419. Data: 47 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 47 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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