Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawon to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 2.30 PPG versus Al Taawon's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Al Taawon, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al Taawon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% | Al Taawon 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.42 xG and Al Taawon 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.149 / defence 0.874 | Al Taawon attack 1.122 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.419. Data: 47 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 47 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.42 / Al Taawon 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.149 / def 0.874 | Al Taawon attack 1.122 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Taawon xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 14 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 38% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
38%
2.62
25%
3.97
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.81
1.39
Al Taawon xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.39 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 29W 8D 10L from 47 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 15L across 47 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.02 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 14W 6D 3L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.47 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 29W 8D 10L in their last 47 games (2.02 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.09 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%, Al Taawon 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 35% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al Taawon in 30%; Al Taawon in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 39% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 35% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Taawon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.42 xG and Al Taawon 1.39 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against Al Taawon attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 37%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, Al Taawon 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.02 PPG, Al Taawon 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.