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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taawon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 2-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 xG and Al Taawon 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.50 / defence 0.88 against Al Taawon attack 0.84 / defence 0.70, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 24%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Taawon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.95 PPG, Al Taawon 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights