🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawon to Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 May 2025 at 17:25 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 2.00 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Al Taawon, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 4–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al Taawon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al Taawon 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 xG and Al Taawon 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.503 / defence 0.884 | Al Taawon attack 0.836 / defence 0.698. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.431. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.698 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 63 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 4.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al Taawon 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights