Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Al Shabab travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al Shabab and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 5–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al Shabab trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% versus Al Shabab 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Shabab 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.08 xG and Al Shabab 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / defence 0.752 | Al Shabab attack 0.921 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.606 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 44 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al Shabab 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.08 / Al Shabab 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / def 0.752 | Al Shabab attack 0.921 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 60% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 3 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.61) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.08
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.07
0.99
Al Shabab xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
52.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.99 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 31W 6D 6L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 10W 16D 17L from 43 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.70 PPG from 20 outings (17W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 3W 8D 9L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 31W 6D 6L in their last 43 games (2.30 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 10W 16D 17L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.70 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Shabab have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, Al Shabab 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 35% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al Shabab in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 55% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 35% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.