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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.98 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights