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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 21 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.00 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2025, ended 4–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 45% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.039 / defence 0.900 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.931 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.543. Data: 42 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 42 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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