🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Qadisiyah FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 4-1 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.57 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.31 / defence 0.86 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.80, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.95 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights