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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Najma 4-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.71 xG and Al Najma 0.53 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.44 / defence 0.73 against Al Najma attack 0.54 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, Al Najma 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Najma's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights