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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Kholood 4-1 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.34 xG and Al Kholood 0.91 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.52 / defence 0.80 against Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 10% | Al Kholood 6%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 83%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, Al Kholood 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Kholood's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights