Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Ahli Jeddah versus Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
Al Kholood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Kholood's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, Al Kholood 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Kholood winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al Kholood 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Al Kholood 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.34 xG and Al Kholood 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.518 / defence 0.798 | Al Kholood attack 0.783 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.450. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.518 — their λ of 3.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Kholood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 31 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 10% | Al Kholood 6%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.20 | Draw 10.00 | Al Kholood 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al Kholood 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 10% | Al Kholood 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.34 / Al Kholood 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.518 / def 0.798 | Al Kholood attack 0.783 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.34
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Kholood xG
57%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 83% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 6% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.52) and Al Kholood's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 3.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
83%
1.20
10%
9.62
6%
15.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.34
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
4.24
0.91
Al Kholood xG
1.20
83%
Home win
9.62
10%
Draw
15.53
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
4%
28.19
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 3.34 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.91 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 19W 4D 8L from 31 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 17L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Kholood heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 10W 3D 2L from 15 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 3W 2D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.19 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al Kholood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 19W 4D 8L in their last 31 games (1.97 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 10W 4D 17L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.20 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since January 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Kholood have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%, Al Kholood 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 53% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al Kholood in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 67% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 53% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Kholood 4-1 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.34 xG and Al Kholood 0.91 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.52 / defence 0.80 against Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 10% | Al Kholood 6%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 83%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, Al Kholood 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Kholood's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.