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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.61 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.44 / defence 0.88 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% | Draw 16% | Al Khaleej Saihat 13%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%, Al Khaleej Saihat 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights