Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 20 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.10 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al-Ittihad FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / defence 0.752 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.212 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.606 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 43 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 4.55. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 20 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.09 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / def 0.752 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.212 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Ittihad FC xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 May 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 53% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.61x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.01
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.40
1.31
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
3%
37.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.31 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 32W 6D 6L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 23W 9D 12L from 44 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.71 PPG from 21 outings (18W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 7D 6L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.70 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 32W 6D 6L in their last 44 games (2.32 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 9D 12L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.71 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, Al-Ittihad FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 57% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.