🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.45 / defence 0.76 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 22%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, Al-Ittihad FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights