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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 26, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 31%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.92 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights