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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 5-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.41 / defence 1.00 against Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 25%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, Al-Fayha 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights