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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.13 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.32 / defence 0.82 against Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 1.50, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 82% | Draw 11% | Al-Fateh 7%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights