Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 3 December 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 4–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al-Ettifaq 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.623 / defence 0.761 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.065 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.623 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 46 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 4.35. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 / Al-Ettifaq 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.623 / def 0.761 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.065 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Ettifaq xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 December 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.62) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.64
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.99
1.20
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
4%
26.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.20 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 32W 6D 7L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 18W 12D 15L from 45 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.71 PPG from 21 outings (18W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.27 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 4D 7L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.49 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 32W 6D 7L in their last 45 games (2.27 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.71 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, Al-Ettifaq 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 48% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 43% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.