Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 3 December 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 30% rate and Al-Ettifaq's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 4–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% versus Al-Ettifaq 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al-Ettifaq 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.74 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.595 / defence 0.633 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.970 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.595 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 39 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.74 / Al-Ettifaq 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.595 / def 0.633 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.970 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 December 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 57% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.59) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.72
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.58
0.84
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
3%
35.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.84 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 28W 6D 5L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 17W 8D 14L from 39 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.68 PPG from 19 outings (16W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 2D 8L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.51 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 28W 6D 5L in their last 39 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.68 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%, Al-Ettifaq 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 53% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 47% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.