Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 3 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Nassr, who boast 8 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fayha.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 56% versus Al-Nassr 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al-Nassr 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.52 xG and Al-Nassr 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.110 / defence 1.132 | Al-Nassr attack 1.278 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al-Fayha games / 45 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 2.00. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 80% | Al-Nassr 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Fayha 1.52 / Al-Nassr 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.110 / def 1.132 | Al-Nassr attack 1.278 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Al-Nassr xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 December 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 26% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 8W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 1.11x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
26%
3.88
24%
4.14
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.66
2.13
Al-Nassr xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
12%
8.46
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
3%
32.83
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 2.13 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 13D 21L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 37W 3D 5L from 45 games, 2.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 16W 2D 4L from 22 away games — 2.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.64 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 37W 3D 5L in their last 45 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 64%, Al-Nassr 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al-Fayha and 73% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Fayha's games and 54% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Fayha's matches and 73% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.