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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ettifaq 4-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 27%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%, Al-Ettifaq 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights