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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 6W 3D 1L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sports City this season.

Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 2.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al-Ettifaq 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.307 / defence 0.814 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.154 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.443. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 51 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 3.70. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.

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